‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: August 8, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Crude Oil

Prices: Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices declined by $2.52 per barrel (b) and by $2.84/b, respectively, since June 1, with Brent front-month futures prices settling at $48.11/b and WTI settling at $45.52/b on July 6 (Figure 1). June Brent and WTI monthly average spot prices were $3.96/b and $3.34/b lower, respectively, than the May averages.

Figure 1: Historical crude oil front month futures prices

Crude oil prices reached their lowest levels year-to-date in late June. Prices fell after EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) reported builds in total U.S. crude oil and petroleum products inventories that were above the five-year average during the weeks ending June 2 and June 9. The build in total petroleum inventories for the week ending June 2 was the largest for any week since 2008. Also, rising Libyan and Nigerian production in June put downward pressure on prices. With production continuing to increase in the United States, total petroleum inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development remained 9% above the previous five-year average at the end of June, despite the ongoing voluntary production cuts made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Price Summary
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a West Texas Intermediate.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
48.67 43.33 48.95 49.58
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
52.32 43.74 50.79 51.58
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
a Weighted by oil consumption.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
Non-OPEC Production 58.49 57.93 58.89 60.05
OECD Consumption 46.41 46.85 47.15 47.53
Non-OECD Consumption 48.99 50.07 51.23 52.47
Total World Consumption 95.40 96.92 98.39 100.00
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 10.7 6.3 2.5 2.2