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Annual Energy Outlook 2018

Full Release Date: February 6, 2018   |  Next Release Date:  January 2019   |  full report

Issues in Focus

Oil and Natural Gas Resources and Technology

Release Date: 3/26/18

Future growth in U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is projected to be driven by the development of tight oil and shale gas resources. However, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds this result. In particular, future domestic tight oil and shale gas production depends on the quality of the resources, the evolution of technological and operational improvements to increase productivity per well and to reduce costs, and the market prices determined in a diverse market of producers and consumers, all of which are highly uncertain. This article provides background on the analysis of the estimated ultimate recovery per well (EUR), a key assumption underlying the projections, and it provides a detailed discussion of the sensitivity of results across Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) cases.

Nuclear Power Outlook

Release Date: 5/7/18

In EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) Reference case, U.S. nuclear power generating capacity is projected to decline from 99.3 gigawatts (GW) to 79.1 GW over the projection period of 2017–50. To address some of the uncertainty surrounding this projection, this article presents sensitivity cases under different assumptions for oil and natural gas availability, nuclear power unit costs, and carbon policies.

Alternative Policies in Power Generation and Energy Demand Markets

Release Date: 5/14/18

EIA analyzes sensitivities around policies affecting the U.S. energy system using alternative scenarios to the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) Reference case in the areas of renewable electric generation and end-use efficiency. This article presents results from two sets of alternative policy scenarios. The first set of cases looks at renewable tax credits and examines the impacts of tariffs on imported solar photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules. The second set of cases examines changes to end-use efficiency policies, including joint Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions standards for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and efficiency standards for residential and commercial equipment.

Analysis of Projected Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Release Date: 5/23/18

In December 2017, the passage of Public Law 115-97 required the Secretary of the Interior to establish and administer a competitive oil and natural gas program for the leasing, development, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in and from the Coastal Plain (Section 1002 Area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Previously, ANWR was effectively under a drilling moratorium. Because this law was passed after the modeling for the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018) was completed, this article investigates the impact of this law change on the Reference case projections in the AEO2018.

Autonomous Vehicles: Uncertainties and Energy Implications

Release Date: 5/30/18

The potential effect autonomous vehicles may have on the future of personal mobility and freight movement has received considerable attention in recent years. This attention has focused not only on discussion of real and perceived costs of travel, shared-use mobility, travel patterns, vehicle design, and vehicle ownership, but also on how autonomous vehicles may affect energy markets. This article uses modeling results from scenarios related to the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 to help quantify the potential effects on energy of widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles.

 

Introduction

The "Issues in focus" section of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) provides in-depth discussions on topics of special significance, including changes in assumptions and recent developments in technologies for energy production and consumption.